Early signs of a short-term recovery
The ASPI is showing early signs of a short-term recovery, supported by improving RSI and MACD readings and a bullish shift in the Parabolic SAR. However, the Stochastic RSI has entered overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of near-term consolidation.
The index is still trading below its 50-day moving average. A sustained recovery above the key resistance zone of 20,230–20,500 would strengthen the positive outlook and point to an improving trend. The recent low of 19,640.6 remains an important downside support, and a decisive breakout is still needed to confirm the recovery.
- ASPI close, 30 Oct
- 20,142.33▼ 0.62%
- Recent low, 26 Oct
- 19,640.6
- Resistance zone
- 20,230–20,500
- 50-day average
- 20,629
Where the index stands
A sustained recovery above the key resistance zone of 20,230–20,500 would strengthen the positive outlook and point to an improving trend. The recent low of 19,640.6 remains an important downside support, and a decisive breakout is still needed to confirm the recovery.
Exhibit 1 · The last three months
The index slid about 9% from its early September high to a low on 26 October. It has since recovered to 20,142, despite a 0.62% dip on 30 October.
Daily closes. Before October, rebuilt from the published RSI path and checked against CSE closes. Tap or hover the chart for each day.
The four indicators
RSI: improving
RSI has risen to 45.79, up from the oversold zone below 30 on 26 October: a gradual improvement in short-term momentum.
MACD: bullish crossover
MACD has crossed above its signal line and the histogram has turned positive: an improving momentum reading.
Parabolic SAR: bullish
The dots have moved below the price: an early sign of a potential short-term bullish reversal.
Stochastic RSI: overbought
The Stochastic RSI has entered overbought territory, with %K at 83.90, suggesting the possibility of near-term consolidation.
Exhibit 2 · Signal summary
Up to 45.79 from oversold
ImprovingHistogram positive, below zero
CrossoverDots now below the price
Bullish%K 83.90, %D 68.83
OverboughtExhibit 3 · What changes our view
Our view: early signs of a short-term recovery.
- 1Close above20,230
Enters the resistance zone
- 2Break above20,500
Strengthens the positive outlook
- 3Fall below19,640
The recovery fails at support
Scenarios are illustrative paths, not forecasts. Tap a scenario to see it on the chart.
More technical outlooks
Capital Trust Securities. For information only. Not investment advice. Indicator readings as published: RSI (14) 45.79, Stochastic RSI %K 83.90 and %D 68.83, 50-day average 20,629. Charts use daily ASPI closes from the Colombo Stock Exchange.